Tomorrow Turkish Central Banks meeting willl be seen on the markets. From beginning of the 2014, TRY is continue to loose its value strictly. The economy and infliation is going bad and logical people wait for an action from the central bank. It will most probably the interest rate raise. However, as we all know central banks are free from politicians, this situation is a little bit different. The government has huge impact on central bank decision. Turkish Economy Minister said that there is no need to change interest rates. Therefore, we understand that they don't want any interest rate changes.
Through the this logic, TRY waits for very tough days if central bank won't use any weapon to use for price stabilty. Most probably with the political pressure, they will talk about some economical ideas and we won't see any decision that make impact for the Turkish currency.
Until the minutes, we can see some retracements on the parities such as EURTRY, USDTRY, GBPTRY. However, after the explanations - if there won't be any use of weapons*- we can see some strict movements to the north. After that, in USDTRY will most probably see 2,30 and above next days. The bears can't hold the movement. Especially, 8 days after FED's meeting will be on screens. The tapering talks will put more pressure on the USDTRY.
As a result, I expect 2,30 and above area for the USDTRY parity after tomorrows Central Bank decision. Again, I talk about the scenerio that Central Bank feel the government's pressure.
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder