Turkish Central Bank will continue to interfere the currency but I still think that it won't help for the Turkish Liras. FED's tapering gossips will increase again. We can see short retracement and after that with the FED's meeting 2,40 levels for USDTRY parity is probable.
26 Ocak 2014 Pazar
EURJPY Prediction 27.01.2014
As we know JPY rallied on friday, the price action breaks the resistence level 38.2 fibonacci, 20 and 50 EMA. Another bearish movement seems possible and after that we can observe an retracement from the 50.0 fib. level. We should follow if the price reach that level and market sentiment. Through that level I expect a decline. Also momentum looks bearish.
23 Ocak 2014 Perşembe
USDTRY Hit The 2.30
When the usdtry parity is around 2.25, I mentioned about it will raise to 2.30 and above. Central Bank made a mistake by not increase the interest rates. And now usdtry is around 2.30. Nice profit for traders who is on the long side.
22 Ocak 2014 Çarşamba
CHFJPY Prediction 22.01.2014
With bond buying program and currency politics JPY's value will continue decreasing after last days retracements. Therefore, on daily chard the price for CHFJPY is near 38,20 fibonacci support and oversold area. Long trade seems logical for me.
May the pips be with you.
May the pips be with you.
EURUSD Prediction 22.01.2014
EURUSD is below 100 day simple moving average. USD seems strong for next days. Therefore if the price broke fibonacci support 1,3523 level I expect a downward movement to continue. Therefore, I put a selstop order for 1,35225 and takeprofit level is another fibonacci support 1,34370. Stop-loss is alittle bit above from 50.00 fibonacci resistance which is 1,35950
May the pips be with you.
May the pips be with you.
21 Ocak 2014 Salı
USDCHF Prediction 21.01.2014
In USDCHF parity when I look at daily chart, I saw a pin bar on 76,40 fibonacci level. This can be a sign of bearish trend. Also, Bollinger and OSC show us some overbought area. However, maybe we can see som up move after review on 1 hour chart. Therefore, I put a sell limit on exact fibonacci resistance point which is 0,91423 and take profit level is 0,9100 stop loss is a little bit above from resistance that is 0,91615.
It looks nice to try.
It looks nice to try.
After Turkish Central Bank Decision
Turkish Central Bank didn't use its interest rate weapon today and keep it same. Yesterday, I told about it will put more pressure on USDTRY currency before FED's meeting. As we all know FED's tapering gossips make gain for USD and TRY has some diffucult times. My prediction for 2,30 levels for the parity USDTRY still same. Also, political tension is keep going. For the information, some of links are below:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-19/turkey-losses-mount-as-graft-backlash-brings-new-protests.html
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-expresses-concerns-about-turkeys-graft-crisis.aspx?pageID=238&nID=60834&NewsCatID=358
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/18/us-turkey-corruption-idUSBREA0H08820140118
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-19/turkey-losses-mount-as-graft-backlash-brings-new-protests.html
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-expresses-concerns-about-turkeys-graft-crisis.aspx?pageID=238&nID=60834&NewsCatID=358
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/18/us-turkey-corruption-idUSBREA0H08820140118
20 Ocak 2014 Pazartesi
EURJPY Prediction 21.01.2014
JPY is on the 3rd day that gain against USD and after third days loss on EURJPY today we saw an upward movement on the chart today. OSC and Bollinger also tell us oversold area and price is near fibonacci 38,20 support. I put MACD and it seems bearish however on 4 hour chart it made a signal that returning bullish. Below is the daily graph; red line is stop/loss level and the green line is take profit level.
Turkish Central Bank Meeting On 21.01.2014
Tomorrow Turkish Central Banks meeting willl be seen on the markets. From beginning of the 2014, TRY is continue to loose its value strictly. The economy and infliation is going bad and logical people wait for an action from the central bank. It will most probably the interest rate raise. However, as we all know central banks are free from politicians, this situation is a little bit different. The government has huge impact on central bank decision. Turkish Economy Minister said that there is no need to change interest rates. Therefore, we understand that they don't want any interest rate changes.
Through the this logic, TRY waits for very tough days if central bank won't use any weapon to use for price stabilty. Most probably with the political pressure, they will talk about some economical ideas and we won't see any decision that make impact for the Turkish currency.
Until the minutes, we can see some retracements on the parities such as EURTRY, USDTRY, GBPTRY. However, after the explanations - if there won't be any use of weapons*- we can see some strict movements to the north. After that, in USDTRY will most probably see 2,30 and above next days. The bears can't hold the movement. Especially, 8 days after FED's meeting will be on screens. The tapering talks will put more pressure on the USDTRY.
As a result, I expect 2,30 and above area for the USDTRY parity after tomorrows Central Bank decision. Again, I talk about the scenerio that Central Bank feel the government's pressure.
Through the this logic, TRY waits for very tough days if central bank won't use any weapon to use for price stabilty. Most probably with the political pressure, they will talk about some economical ideas and we won't see any decision that make impact for the Turkish currency.
Until the minutes, we can see some retracements on the parities such as EURTRY, USDTRY, GBPTRY. However, after the explanations - if there won't be any use of weapons*- we can see some strict movements to the north. After that, in USDTRY will most probably see 2,30 and above next days. The bears can't hold the movement. Especially, 8 days after FED's meeting will be on screens. The tapering talks will put more pressure on the USDTRY.
As a result, I expect 2,30 and above area for the USDTRY parity after tomorrows Central Bank decision. Again, I talk about the scenerio that Central Bank feel the government's pressure.
19 Ocak 2014 Pazar
Wolf Of Wall Street: To Be A Successfull Trader
I watched the movie today and absolutely I loved it. It attracted me because the story is based on a true life but I want to mention about another thing. The movie gave me inspiration to write about "How to become a successfull trader?" While I was watching the movie I always focused on the ideas that "Don't accept the NO as an answer." Weather the profile of Jordan Belfort is bad or good, the main thing is use your mind, convince yourself first and don't give up after an unsusccessful incident.
What is related about forex?
Answer: Learning forex trading and being a profitable trader lie on the basic facts of the life and the some key concepts are the things that I said above. For instance, a cliche: Edison didn't give up hundreds of times to invent lamp and finally he changed the world. Convinced himself that he could make it and did it.
In the forex world, there are tons of information in the internet to get the technique. However, using them is the main problem after learning process of informations.
People usually are defeated by their emotions and in the long term can't be successfull in trading. Actually it is not just about trading. You can think it around all concepts of world from cooking meals to win a war. First, we should find the raw stuff from the meters below the earth and then we should put it in a process.If we are not an expert this raw stuff will be mess but if we know how to take care about it, we can use it.
Indicators, price actions, shapes, fibonacci, eliot waves, fundamental analysis, sentimentel analysis etc. All of them can be learnt after a "HARD WORK" so the first key concept is "HARD WORK". Nothing special. We heard this from lots of person. From teachers, mothers, fathers, uncles.
And another nothing special concept is "DISCPLINE". This contains also money management, self esteem and don't put your emotions through the charts. Create systems and stick to them if they are profitable. To understand it is profitable or not use demo accounts over and over again.
These are very easy to write and difficult to apply. I know it. In this post there is nothing to special to tell people who wants to be successful trader but it is useful to remind these lots of times.
Discipline and hard working are the key concepts for all area to get the success. Money will follow us when these are applied by us.
What is related about forex?
Answer: Learning forex trading and being a profitable trader lie on the basic facts of the life and the some key concepts are the things that I said above. For instance, a cliche: Edison didn't give up hundreds of times to invent lamp and finally he changed the world. Convinced himself that he could make it and did it.
In the forex world, there are tons of information in the internet to get the technique. However, using them is the main problem after learning process of informations.
People usually are defeated by their emotions and in the long term can't be successfull in trading. Actually it is not just about trading. You can think it around all concepts of world from cooking meals to win a war. First, we should find the raw stuff from the meters below the earth and then we should put it in a process.If we are not an expert this raw stuff will be mess but if we know how to take care about it, we can use it.
Indicators, price actions, shapes, fibonacci, eliot waves, fundamental analysis, sentimentel analysis etc. All of them can be learnt after a "HARD WORK" so the first key concept is "HARD WORK". Nothing special. We heard this from lots of person. From teachers, mothers, fathers, uncles.
And another nothing special concept is "DISCPLINE". This contains also money management, self esteem and don't put your emotions through the charts. Create systems and stick to them if they are profitable. To understand it is profitable or not use demo accounts over and over again.
These are very easy to write and difficult to apply. I know it. In this post there is nothing to special to tell people who wants to be successful trader but it is useful to remind these lots of times.
Discipline and hard working are the key concepts for all area to get the success. Money will follow us when these are applied by us.
18 Ocak 2014 Cumartesi
USDTRY Update 2
As I said before in the USDTRY Update post, the pair is continue to increase. It broke 2.20 level. However, I couldn't catch it becasue of I am a part time trader and long working hours obstruckted me to follow markets.
On the 21st January, Turkish Central Bank meeting will be seen. They have to take action but political pressure may prevent a interest rate increasing decision. There is a ambiguity for this meeting. Maybe a retracement will be occur till the meeting.
On the 21st January, Turkish Central Bank meeting will be seen. They have to take action but political pressure may prevent a interest rate increasing decision. There is a ambiguity for this meeting. Maybe a retracement will be occur till the meeting.
6 Ocak 2014 Pazartesi
USDTRY Prediction Update
As I said in the previous post, USDTRY reached the above 2.19. I think It is time to take profit time. However, I believe that the political tension is Still continue. Therefore, the uptrend is Still possible. I will be on it when I see retracement.
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