Turkish Central Bank didn't use its interest rate weapon today and keep it same. Yesterday, I told about it will put more pressure on USDTRY currency before FED's meeting. As we all know FED's tapering gossips make gain for USD and TRY has some diffucult times. My prediction for 2,30 levels for the parity USDTRY still same. Also, political tension is keep going. For the information, some of links are below:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-19/turkey-losses-mount-as-graft-backlash-brings-new-protests.html
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-expresses-concerns-about-turkeys-graft-crisis.aspx?pageID=238&nID=60834&NewsCatID=358
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/18/us-turkey-corruption-idUSBREA0H08820140118
21 Ocak 2014 Salı
20 Ocak 2014 Pazartesi
EURJPY Prediction 21.01.2014
JPY is on the 3rd day that gain against USD and after third days loss on EURJPY today we saw an upward movement on the chart today. OSC and Bollinger also tell us oversold area and price is near fibonacci 38,20 support. I put MACD and it seems bearish however on 4 hour chart it made a signal that returning bullish. Below is the daily graph; red line is stop/loss level and the green line is take profit level.
Turkish Central Bank Meeting On 21.01.2014
Tomorrow Turkish Central Banks meeting willl be seen on the markets. From beginning of the 2014, TRY is continue to loose its value strictly. The economy and infliation is going bad and logical people wait for an action from the central bank. It will most probably the interest rate raise. However, as we all know central banks are free from politicians, this situation is a little bit different. The government has huge impact on central bank decision. Turkish Economy Minister said that there is no need to change interest rates. Therefore, we understand that they don't want any interest rate changes.
Through the this logic, TRY waits for very tough days if central bank won't use any weapon to use for price stabilty. Most probably with the political pressure, they will talk about some economical ideas and we won't see any decision that make impact for the Turkish currency.
Until the minutes, we can see some retracements on the parities such as EURTRY, USDTRY, GBPTRY. However, after the explanations - if there won't be any use of weapons*- we can see some strict movements to the north. After that, in USDTRY will most probably see 2,30 and above next days. The bears can't hold the movement. Especially, 8 days after FED's meeting will be on screens. The tapering talks will put more pressure on the USDTRY.
As a result, I expect 2,30 and above area for the USDTRY parity after tomorrows Central Bank decision. Again, I talk about the scenerio that Central Bank feel the government's pressure.
Through the this logic, TRY waits for very tough days if central bank won't use any weapon to use for price stabilty. Most probably with the political pressure, they will talk about some economical ideas and we won't see any decision that make impact for the Turkish currency.
Until the minutes, we can see some retracements on the parities such as EURTRY, USDTRY, GBPTRY. However, after the explanations - if there won't be any use of weapons*- we can see some strict movements to the north. After that, in USDTRY will most probably see 2,30 and above next days. The bears can't hold the movement. Especially, 8 days after FED's meeting will be on screens. The tapering talks will put more pressure on the USDTRY.
As a result, I expect 2,30 and above area for the USDTRY parity after tomorrows Central Bank decision. Again, I talk about the scenerio that Central Bank feel the government's pressure.
19 Ocak 2014 Pazar
Wolf Of Wall Street: To Be A Successfull Trader
I watched the movie today and absolutely I loved it. It attracted me because the story is based on a true life but I want to mention about another thing. The movie gave me inspiration to write about "How to become a successfull trader?" While I was watching the movie I always focused on the ideas that "Don't accept the NO as an answer." Weather the profile of Jordan Belfort is bad or good, the main thing is use your mind, convince yourself first and don't give up after an unsusccessful incident.
What is related about forex?
Answer: Learning forex trading and being a profitable trader lie on the basic facts of the life and the some key concepts are the things that I said above. For instance, a cliche: Edison didn't give up hundreds of times to invent lamp and finally he changed the world. Convinced himself that he could make it and did it.
In the forex world, there are tons of information in the internet to get the technique. However, using them is the main problem after learning process of informations.
People usually are defeated by their emotions and in the long term can't be successfull in trading. Actually it is not just about trading. You can think it around all concepts of world from cooking meals to win a war. First, we should find the raw stuff from the meters below the earth and then we should put it in a process.If we are not an expert this raw stuff will be mess but if we know how to take care about it, we can use it.
Indicators, price actions, shapes, fibonacci, eliot waves, fundamental analysis, sentimentel analysis etc. All of them can be learnt after a "HARD WORK" so the first key concept is "HARD WORK". Nothing special. We heard this from lots of person. From teachers, mothers, fathers, uncles.
And another nothing special concept is "DISCPLINE". This contains also money management, self esteem and don't put your emotions through the charts. Create systems and stick to them if they are profitable. To understand it is profitable or not use demo accounts over and over again.
These are very easy to write and difficult to apply. I know it. In this post there is nothing to special to tell people who wants to be successful trader but it is useful to remind these lots of times.
Discipline and hard working are the key concepts for all area to get the success. Money will follow us when these are applied by us.
What is related about forex?
Answer: Learning forex trading and being a profitable trader lie on the basic facts of the life and the some key concepts are the things that I said above. For instance, a cliche: Edison didn't give up hundreds of times to invent lamp and finally he changed the world. Convinced himself that he could make it and did it.
In the forex world, there are tons of information in the internet to get the technique. However, using them is the main problem after learning process of informations.
People usually are defeated by their emotions and in the long term can't be successfull in trading. Actually it is not just about trading. You can think it around all concepts of world from cooking meals to win a war. First, we should find the raw stuff from the meters below the earth and then we should put it in a process.If we are not an expert this raw stuff will be mess but if we know how to take care about it, we can use it.
Indicators, price actions, shapes, fibonacci, eliot waves, fundamental analysis, sentimentel analysis etc. All of them can be learnt after a "HARD WORK" so the first key concept is "HARD WORK". Nothing special. We heard this from lots of person. From teachers, mothers, fathers, uncles.
And another nothing special concept is "DISCPLINE". This contains also money management, self esteem and don't put your emotions through the charts. Create systems and stick to them if they are profitable. To understand it is profitable or not use demo accounts over and over again.
These are very easy to write and difficult to apply. I know it. In this post there is nothing to special to tell people who wants to be successful trader but it is useful to remind these lots of times.
Discipline and hard working are the key concepts for all area to get the success. Money will follow us when these are applied by us.
18 Ocak 2014 Cumartesi
USDTRY Update 2
As I said before in the USDTRY Update post, the pair is continue to increase. It broke 2.20 level. However, I couldn't catch it becasue of I am a part time trader and long working hours obstruckted me to follow markets.
On the 21st January, Turkish Central Bank meeting will be seen. They have to take action but political pressure may prevent a interest rate increasing decision. There is a ambiguity for this meeting. Maybe a retracement will be occur till the meeting.
On the 21st January, Turkish Central Bank meeting will be seen. They have to take action but political pressure may prevent a interest rate increasing decision. There is a ambiguity for this meeting. Maybe a retracement will be occur till the meeting.
6 Ocak 2014 Pazartesi
USDTRY Prediction Update
As I said in the previous post, USDTRY reached the above 2.19. I think It is time to take profit time. However, I believe that the political tension is Still continue. Therefore, the uptrend is Still possible. I will be on it when I see retracement.
28 Aralık 2013 Cumartesi
USDTRY Prediction
Turkey has some rough time because of the corruption claims over government. The president Recep Tayyip Erdogan hasn't mentioned the claims yet. He explains this situation as a conspiracy which is constructed by foreign countries to damage Turkey. I don't want to write detailly because it is a deep political problem.
Below the the daily chart you can see GBPTRY, USDTRY and EURTRY:
There was a dramatic move to upward and it seems this pattern will continue in near term I think. Because political tension won't stop easily. There is a serious crisis. Therefore, I will open a long position which the target will be 2,20. In previous post, I mentioned about 2.15, 2.20 levels. The price reached the first level and the second level will be seen in near term I guess.
Some related news:
Euro Rallies on Optimism Region’s Economic Growth Will Improve
Erdogan Crisis Slams Lira, Stocks as Foreigners Dump Turkey Debt
Below the the daily chart you can see GBPTRY, USDTRY and EURTRY:
There was a dramatic move to upward and it seems this pattern will continue in near term I think. Because political tension won't stop easily. There is a serious crisis. Therefore, I will open a long position which the target will be 2,20. In previous post, I mentioned about 2.15, 2.20 levels. The price reached the first level and the second level will be seen in near term I guess.
Some related news:
Euro Rallies on Optimism Region’s Economic Growth Will Improve
Erdogan Crisis Slams Lira, Stocks as Foreigners Dump Turkey Debt
25 Kasım 2013 Pazartesi
Outrageous Prediction For 2014 - From My Post in TradingFloor.com
FED will taper in the first half. World will see such an action first time. Because FED budget was increased in 6 year more than between 1913-2007. However, since the summer with news of tapering FED has been preparing the markets for the worst impact. Therefore when the first time tapering will occur, world is going to see harsh movements and high volatilies. Money will be withdrawn from the emerging markets, especially countries like Turkey that has high current deficit will be deeply effected from high inflation and stock exchanges will drop sharply. I mean inflation will show up according to import is too high and USD and EUR will gain against Turkish Liras more than lots of emerging markets currency. Turkish Lira is stated as very valuable now and the pair is around 2.00 - 2.05. We can see 2.15 and 2.20. After the big shock, world economy is get used to tapering quickly because we have been talking and valuation have been injected in the markets for around 6 months till now.
22 Ekim 2013 Salı
Expectations Again for Shifting the Tapering Again
The US Payroll is stated 148.000 today and we observed gains on S&P 500, Dow Jones and Gold prices with the expactations about there won't be tapering in this year. Also, with the latest budget crisis which took 16 days harmed the US economy seriosly. This effected also traders. Nothing is going well enough for tapering.
The same scenario repeated third or fourth times I guess. This kind of news will rise a few times again from US I think and till the end of 2013 we can catch few more very good trading opportunities. This kind of opportunities are very obvious and traders should not miss them.
The same scenario repeated third or fourth times I guess. This kind of news will rise a few times again from US I think and till the end of 2013 we can catch few more very good trading opportunities. This kind of opportunities are very obvious and traders should not miss them.
10 Ekim 2013 Perşembe
Stocks Rally Today in USA 10.10.2013
As I mentiond here before on my previous post, after the deal news are on the papers the stocks started to increase and in these 3 days S&P and Dow Jones gave very nice profits on forex with 100:1 leverage. Because of the uncertaninty in 3 days, indices decreased and today with the better news stocks raise and long positions profits make us happy. The forex is a risky business but lots of times traders can catch very good opportunites with keeping it simple. The success is hidden in the simplicity.
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